This Article Full Text Full Text (PDF) Workforce in Oncology Taskforce Submit a response to this article Purchase Article View Shopping Cart Alert me when this article is cited Alert me when eLetters are posted Alert me if a correction is posted Services Email this article to a colleague Similar articles in this journal Alert me to new issues of the journal Download to citation manager Rights & Permissions Citing Articles Citing Articles via HighWire Citing Articles via Google Scholar Google Scholar Articles by Erikson, C. Articles by Goldstein, M. Search for Related Content PubMed Articles by Erikson, C. Articles by Goldstein, M. Social Bookmarking                            What's this?

Future Supply and Demand for Oncologists : Challenges to Assuring Access to Oncology Services

Purpose: To conduct a comprehensive analysis of supply of and demand for oncology services through 2020. This study was commissioned by the Board of Directors of ASCO.

Methods: New data on physician supply gathered from surveys of practicing oncologists, oncology fellows, and fellowship program directors were analyzed, along with 2005 American Medical Association Masterfile data on practicing medical oncologists, hematologists/oncologists, and gynecologic oncologists, to determine the baseline capacity and to forecast visit capacity through 2020. Demand for visits was calculated by applying age-, sex-, and time-from-diagnosis-visit rate data from the National Cancer Institute's analysis of the 1998 to 2002 Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database to the National Cancer Institute's cancer incidence and prevalence projections. The cancer incidence and prevalence projections were calculated by applying a 3-year average (2000–2002) of age- and sex-specific cancer rates from SEER to the US Census Bureau population projections released on March 2004. The baseline supply and demand forecasts assume no change in cancer care delivery and physician practice patterns. Alternate scenarios were constructed by changing assumptions in the baseline models.

Results: Demand for oncology services is expected to rise rapidly, driven by the aging and growth of the population and improvements in cancer survival rates, at the same time the oncology workforce is aging and retiring in increasing numbers. Demand is expected to rise 48% between 2005 and 2020. The supply of services provided by oncologists during this time is expected to grow more slowly, approximately 14%, based on the current age distribution and practice patterns of oncologists and the number of oncology fellowship positions. This translates into a shortage of 9.4 to 15.0 million visits, or 2,550 to 4,080 oncologists—roughly one-quarter to one-third of the 2005 supply. The baseline projections do not include any alterations based on changes in practice patterns, service use, or cancer treatments. Various alternate scenarios were also developed to show how supply and demand might change under different assumptions.

Conclusions: ASCO, policy makers, and the public have major challenges ahead of them to forestall likely shortages in the capacity to meet future demand for oncology services. A multifaceted strategy will be needed to ensure that Americans have access to oncology services in 2020, as no single action will fill the likely gap between supply and demand. Among the options to consider are increasing the number of oncology fellowship positions, increasing use of nonphysician clinicians, increasing the role of primary care physicians in the care of patients in remission, and redesigning service delivery.

CiteULike    Complore    Connotea    Del.icio.us    Digg    Facebook    Reddit    Technorati    Twitter    What's this?

This article has been cited by other articles:

				E. L. Towle and T. R. Barr 2009 National Practice Benchmark: Report on 2008 Data J. Oncol. Pract, September 1, 2009; 5(5): 223 - 227. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]

				C. Earle Cancer Quality Alliance Proceedings: Caring Beyond Cancer J. Oncol. Pract, September 1, 2009; 5(5): 265 - 266. [Full Text] [PDF]

				L. A. Buswell, P. R. Ponte, and L. N. Shulman Provider Practice Models in Ambulatory Oncology Practice: Analysis of Productivity, Revenue, and Provider and Patient Satisfaction J. Oncol. Pract, July 1, 2009; 5(4): 188 - 192. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]

				S. V. Hudson, J. Chubak, E. J. Coups, L. Blake-Gumbs, P. B. Jacobsen, A. I. Neugut, and D. S.M. Buist Identifying Key Questions to Advance Research and Practice in Cancer Survivorship Follow-Up Care: A Report From the ASPO Survivorship Interest Group Cancer Epidemiol. Biomarkers Prev., July 1, 2009; 18(7): 2152 - 2154. [Full Text] [PDF]

				L. Nekhlyudov "Doc, Should I See You or My Oncologist?" A Primary Care Perspective on Opportunities and Challenges in Providing Comprehensive Care for Cancer Survivors J. Clin. Oncol., May 20, 2009; 27(15): 2424 - 2426. [Full Text] [PDF]

				P. A. Ganz Quality of Care and Cancer Survivorship: The Challenge of Implementing the Institute of Medicine Recommendations J. Oncol. Pract, May 1, 2009; 5(3): 101 - 105. [Full Text] [PDF]

				Ensure the Future of Your Practice Through Early Succession Planning J. Oncol. Pract, May 1, 2009; 5(3): 136 - 138. [Full Text] [PDF]

				C. Erikson, S. Schulman, M. Kosty, and A. Hanley Oncology Workforce: Results of the ASCO 2007 Program Directors Survey J. Oncol. Pract, March 1, 2009; 5(2): 62 - 65. [Full Text] [PDF]

				Generational Differences Among Oncologists: Shaping the Future of Practice J. Oncol. Pract, January 1, 2009; 5(1): 13 - 17. [Full Text] [PDF]

				Future Supply of and Demand for Oncologists J. Oncol. Pract, November 1, 2008; 4(6): 300 - 302. [Full Text] [PDF]

				J. L. Warren, A. B. Mariotto, A. Meekins, M. Topor, and M. L. Brown Current and Future Utilization of Services From Medical Oncologists J. Clin. Oncol., July 1, 2008; 26(19): 3242 - 3247. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]

				Succession Planning J. Oncol. Pract, May 1, 2008; 4(3): 119 - 120. [Full Text] [PDF]

				E. S. Salsberg, A. Grover, M. A. Simon, S. L. Frick, M. A. Kuremsky, and D. C. Goodman An AOA Critical Issue. Future Physician Workforce Requirements: Implications for Orthopaedic Surgery Education J. Bone Joint Surg. Am., May 1, 2008; 90(5): 1143 - 1159. [Full Text] [PDF]

				P. A. Ganz and E. E. Hahn Implementing a Survivorship Care Plan for Patients With Breast Cancer J. Clin. Oncol., February 10, 2008; 26(5): 759 - 767. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]

				E. A. Barnes, G. Fan, K. Harris, M. Doyle, L. S. Librach, E. Chow, L. Barbera, M. Tsao, K. Lam, and C. Danjoux Involvement of Family Physicians in the Care of Cancer Patients Seen in the Palliative Rapid Response Radiotherapy Program J. Clin. Oncol., December 20, 2007; 25(36): 5758 - 5762. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]

				Focusing on a Shared Goal J. Oncol. Pract, November 1, 2007; 3(6): 290 - 290. [Full Text] [PDF]

				E. Tetzlaff, M. Polansky, K. Carr, J. Mares, and L. Vu Physician Assistants in Oncology J. Oncol. Pract, September 1, 2007; 3(5): 283 - 283. [Full Text] [PDF]

				D. Coniglio, S. Blackwell, S. Cheshire, B. Fricklas, E. O'Branski, A. Polito, M. A. Rubio, and J. J. Vredenburgh Nonphysician Providers in Oncology J. Oncol. Pract, September 1, 2007; 3(5): 284 - 284. [Full Text] [PDF]

				P. P. Yu Making the Sum Greater Than Its Parts: Nurse Practitioners and Physicians J. Oncol. Pract, May 1, 2007; 3(3): 146 - 146. [Full Text] [PDF]

				J. M. Cohen In Response to "Future Supply and Demand for Oncologists: Challenges to Assuring Access to Oncology Services" J. Oncol. Pract, May 1, 2007; 3(3): 179 - 179. [Full Text] [PDF]

				D. W. Blayney Who Will Do the Work? What Work Will They Do? J. Oncol. Pract, March 1, 2007; 3(2): 53 - 53. [Full Text] [PDF]